College football is back, and even though no games have been played yet, we already have a sense of which teams have the best shot to make the fifth installment of the 4-team playoff at the end of the season.
We still don't know precisely how the committee picks the final four teams, but we have learned a few things over the years. We know they like the SEC and Alabama. We know they generally prefer conference champions if most other criteria are in the same ballpark. And we know they don't like to give bids to Pac-12 and Big 12 teams in the same year.
With what we have learned so far, we have some idea of what teams need to do to make the playoff. Below, we ranked the top 20 teams in the country based on their chances to make the playoff.
20. Florida State
AP Rank: 19
Key games: The Seminoles get a tough test right out of the gate against Virginia Tech. They also have road games against Miami, Notre Dame, Syracuse, and Louisville. Oh yeah, and there are home games against Clemson and what should be an improved Florida team.
One thing to know: New coach Willie Taggart has a lot of talent to work with, but it might take a season for them to adjust to his style, and for the team to recover from their 2017 debacle. The good news is that the path to the ACC title game is pretty clear if they do rebound: beat Clemson at home.
19. UCF
AP Rank: 21
Key games: UCF does not face a team ranked in the preseason top 25, but does close the season on the road against South Florida.
One thing to know: After missing out on the playoff in 2017, UCF could put pressure on the playoff committee if they run the table. But if they do, they will have to do it without head coach Scott Frost who left for Nebraska. But maybe just as huge was not promoting either of Frost's coordinators and letting both follow him to Nebraska.
18. Mississippi State
AP Rank: 18
Key games: The Bulldogs have Auburn at home in early October and then play road games at LSU, Alabama, and Ole Miss.
One thing to know: New coach Joe Moorhead inherits a lot of talent from Dan Mullen, who left for Florida. That includes dual-threat QB Nick Fitzgerald. On the flip-side, they are still in the same division as Auburn, Alabama, and LSU.
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